Dramatic gains in life expectancy are one of the greatest achievements of social and public health systems in OECD countries over the past century. Yet population ageing – the combination of longer life expectancy and declining fertility – fundamentally challenges the sustainability of social protection systems (Araki et al. 2024, Geppert and Boulhol 2018, OECD 2023, 2024). The average OECD old-age to working-age ratio stands at 31 people aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age (20 to 64 years old). This rate is projected to more than double to 66 older people per 100 of working age by 2082 (OECD 2024).
This transition makes it harder for governments to finance programmes such as public pensions and healthcare, including long-term care (OECD 2024), and the usual policy responses to this dilemma have proven difficult. Efforts to tighten programme eligibility and benefit levels have faced opposition in many countries, while raising taxes/contributions on current workers or finding new revenue sources have also proven unpopular, even as social programmes remain fundamentally valued (OECD 2025).
So how do people want governments to address population ageing and improve the sustainability of social programmes? The OECD’s Risks that Matter (RTM) survey offers some clues. Now in its fourth wave, RTM takes stock of risk perceptions and preferences for social protection using representative samples in 27 OECD countries.
Limited room to manoeuvre on higher contributions by workers
There is little appetite for increasing taxes or social contributions to fund social programmes. While almost half of all RTM respondents expressed a willingness to pay an additional 2% of their income (in taxes or social contributions) for better healthcare and pensions during the pandemic, the share has since declined. Today, on average, only 38% of respondents say they would be willing to pay an additional 2% for healthcare – the most popular policy area – with rates ranging from 50% in Ireland and Portugal to 26% in Lithuania. This shift can be seen across policy areas (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Willingness to pay more for social programmes has declined since the pandemic
Share (%) of respondents willing to pay 2% more in taxes or social security contributions to benefit from better provision of / access to selected social and public benefits, RTM average, 2018 24
Note: RTM averages are unweighted. Averages refer to the 27 participating RTM countries in 2022 and 2024, the 25 participating countries in 2020 and the 22 participating countries in 2018. Respondents were asked “Would you be willing to pay an additional 2% of your income in taxes/social contributions to benefit from better provision of and access to [list of policy options on y-axis]?” Note that some response options changed slightly between survey waves. Refer to the questionnaires at https://oe.cd/rtm.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter.
While willingness to pay has decreased, demand for (more) progressive taxation has remained stable since 2022. On average across countries, 58% of respondents feel the government should tax the rich more to support the poor, with rates highest in Greece, Türkiye, and Italy (OECD 2025).
Getting underrepresented groups into work is popular, while fertility measures are not
Growing the base of contributing workers is another way to bolster the funding base of social programme. Nearly 70%, on average, want their government to support the greater participation of women and other underrepresented groups in the labour market (Figure 2). Similarly, 56% of respondents call for more part-time workers to transition to full-time work. (Of course, these goals are related: women, and particularly mothers, are more likely to work part-time than fathers and people without dependent children; see OECD 2024).
Though pro-fertility measures are prominent in public discourse, only 43% of respondents, on average, say governments should address population ageing and worker shortages by encouraging people to have more children. Respondents have strong views about barriers to childrearing: on average, 88% point to the financial situation of younger people and 87% point to housing conditions as barriers restricting people from having a first or additional child (OECD 2025).
Figure 2 Increasing women’s labour force participation, better use of technology, and more full-time work are the public’s preferred measures to address population ageing and worker shortages
Share (%) of respondents who support specified responses to population ageing, by country, 2024
Note: RTM 27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “Population ageing may lead to worker shortages in the coming years. To what degree do you oppose or support the following measures to address worker shortages in your country?” For the full question/responses, see the questionnaire at https://oe.cd/rtm.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey
On average, 63% want to address demographic-induced worker shortages through greater use of technology to improve efficiencies in the workplace (Figure 2), though this preference is likely tied to productivity and growth goals rather than financing social protection; fewer than half of respondents support introducing or increasing taxes on robots and technology (OECD 2025).
These preferences emerge in a context of high concern about population ageing. On average, 65% of respondents say they are “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned” about population ageing (OECD 2025).
Modernising social protection to create efficiencies
Limited budgets make ‘value for money’ more important than ever, and improving service delivery efficiencies through technology is one way to reduce – or at least slow the growth in – social programme costs (OECD 2024). On average, 52% of RTM 2024 respondents say they use digital tools (websites, apps, email) to access government services most or all of the time, with rates exceeding 60% in Korea, Lithuania, Greece, and Israel (Figure 3). Just over half (52%) report that they find such digital tools easy to use, with rates higher among those who use digital tools more (OECD 2025).
Figure 3 Over half use digital tools to access government programmes and about one quarter go in person
Share (%) of respondents who use selected tools for accessing government services most or all of the time, by country, 2024
Note: RTM 27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “Thinking about the times you have applied for (or renewed) government benefits or services (e.g. childcare, pension, public healthcare) in the last 12 months, how often did you use these different types of communication methods? [answer choices in legend]” For the full question/responses, see the questionnaire at https://oe.cd/rtm.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey
Further tech-driven cost savings in social benefit and service delivery – in particular, by using artificial intelligence – will require careful communication by governments, as many people do not yet trust governments’ use of AI in social programmes. Only 40% of respondents, on average, feel that the use of AI to help process and approve social programme applications is good for users, while 30% express uncertainty and 25% do not believe that government use of AI is good for users of social programmes (Figure 4).
Figure 4 Many are sceptical of their government using AI in processing benefit applications
Share (%) of respondents according to whether they believe government use of AI for processing and approving applications is good for users of public benefits, by country, 2024
Note: RTM 27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “Thinking about the use of digital tools and artificial intelligence (AI) by government, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Governments using AI to hel¬p process and approve applications is good for users of public benefits.” For the full question/responses, see the questionnaire at https://oe.cd/rtm.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey
While major reforms to eligibility and benefit levels will likely remain politically challenging, and public appetite for greater taxes and contributions is worsening, the findings from the 2024 Risks that Matter survey suggest that there is still room for manoeuvre in sustaining social protection systems. Promoting inclusive labour force participation (Boheim et al. 2024) and improving efficiencies in social programme delivery show considerable public support and – importantly – they are also feasible in practice. Better listening to citizens’ perspectives in the policymaking process, through measurement tools like RTM, can help policymakers navigate social protection reform in the face of demographic change.
References
Araki, S, J Barszczewski, K Killmeier and A Llena-Nozal (2024), "Affordability of long-term care systems in times of rapid population ageing", VoxEU.org, 29 November.
Boheim, R, T Horvath, T Leoni and M Spielauer (2024), "Inclusive labour force participation can reverse the economic consequences of population ageing", VoxEU.org, 11 August.
Geppert, C and H Boulhol (2018), "Population ageing: Pension policies alone will not prevent the decline in the relative size of the labour force", VoxEU.org, 11 June.
OECD, (2023), Pensions at a Glance 2023: OECD and G20 Indicators.
OECD, (2024), Megatrends and the Future of Social Protection.
OECD, (2024), Modernising access to social protection: Strategies, technologies and data advances in OECD countries.
OECD, (2025), More effective social protection for stronger economic growth: Main findings from the 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey.
